Well yes, the word now is that that cargo did indeed include weapons, specifically Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missiles – reportedly a very sophisticated defense system against invading enemy airplanes and even ballistic missiles – which were to be delivered to Iran on behalf, not of the Russian state, but rather certain Russia-based mafia interests. I was first alerted to this revelation by an on-line article in the French newsmagazine Le Point (The Arctic Sea supposedly carried S-300 ground-to-air missiles for Iran), but that piece in turn based all its reporting on an account from the Austrian newspaper Salzburger Nachrichten (The rocket-smugglers on the “Arctic Sea”).

The Salzburger Nachrichten, of all papers! It does seem a bit strange to learn of the secret details behind contraband cargo on an ocean-going ship from a journal based somewhere that is, oh, about 250 km from the nearest open water, eh? (And that BTW is to the South: Salzburg is closest to the sea if you proceed through NE Italy to the Adriatic.) The key variable enabling the scoop, however, seems to have had nothing to do with closeness to water, but rather closeness to Israeli intelligence sources, as the piece itself carries the by-line “Gil Yaron Jerusalem” [sic].

So here’s what Gil Yaron writes:

• Iran approached certain rather dodgy rogue elements of the Russian military in Kaliningrad – that’s the Russian enclave on the Baltic, northwest of Poland – to arrange for the S-300 rockets to be loaded onto the Arctic Sea two months ago, when it conveniently was due to be there to undergo some repairs. These were hidden under the ship’s ostensible cargo of wood.
  
• A “Western intelligence service” – no further details – let Moscow know what was going on. The Russian authorities immediately recognized the potential great embarrassment this could cause them, for if anyone is going to deliver S-300 missiles to Iran, it naturally has to be the Russian authorities, according to proper signed contracts, and not something like this out of left field.
  
• As a result, those “hijackers” who boarded and took control of the ship shortly after it set sail and was in international waters were actually agents from the FSB – basically the successor to the KGB. And the reason they then kept sailing the ship all the way to a spot off the West African coast was to put it in as inaccessible a spot to any Western journalists as possible before letting their navy “recapture” it and bring the episode to a close.
  
• Oh, and naturally NATO and most of the world’s intelligence services were perfectly aware of where the ship was at all times as it made its way out into the Atlantic, but they were willing to let the Russians set up their little cover-story as long as they made sure that the S-300′s never got anywhere near Iran.

Chief among the intelligenge agencies monitoring the situation was of course the Mossad, Israel’s highly-regarded version – naturally, because any S-300′s deployed in Iran would immensely complicated Israel’s task should it decide it needed to strike with its air force to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations. It wasn’t necessarily the Mossad which first discovered what was going on in Kaliningrad – or maybe it was; we don’t know – but Yaron does claim that the Israel authorities even canceled an arms deal they had arranged with Georgia as a further incentive to get Moscow to act to do something about the “Arctic Sea.” What’s more, Israeli president Shimon Peres paid an unscheduled visit to Moscow shortly after the Russian navy “recaptured” the ship. According to official word, while there he provided “concrete proof that Iran and Syria are providing weapons to Hamas and Hizbollah.”

By the way, to tie up some other loose ends here, the American government (as well as Israel, of course) has long urged Russia not to act on the contract it does have with Iran to deliver official S-300s. Assuring cooperation on this matter could very well be one of the main motivations for the apparent turn-around in the Obama administration’s decision to station an anti-missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic, which I discussed here a few days ago.

                          

As you probably have noticed, I generally cover the national press, not the regional press; and I generally cover the “broadsheets” rather than the “tabloids.” (These terms refer to the physical format of a newspaper – whether you read it with the long side vertical or horizontal, respectively – but they also have come to mean “respected, mainstream publication” and “pandering to the crowd,” respectively.) It was easy to find a webpage with the Austrian newspapers, but it was not clear which of those satisfied my criteria. If there are any Österreichers out there who can help me along, by telling me which other Austrian newspapers I should have included but didn’t, or perhaps which of the ones I did choose that I shouldn’t have, I’d be mighty grateful. And I’ll be prepared for that “next time” – say, when an Austrian is elected EU Council President (if the draft Constitution proposing that new office ever gets off the ground).

As with the French press, the challenge here is to find coverage that adds something new to the blanket recitation of facts about the recall election that you’d be able to find anyway in the English-language press. Turning first to the Kurier, only two articles stand out in this regard.

One is a decent bit of analysis on the problems that “Arnie” faces now, now that he has won: Herculean Assignment for Arnie. He’s got to do something about the big state deficit, currently at $8 billion is, but which could go up to $20 billion if a lawsuit against the issuing of state bonds succeeds; he’s got to submit a budget to the legislature by January, and two-thirds of the legislators have to approve it for it to pass. He’s hampered by the fact that California now has the worst credit-rating among all the states; he’s got to attract jobs back that are now going to Arizona and Nevada, and elsewhere (spurred along by the measure Gray Davis had passed and signed, which requires all California businesses over a certain size to provide health insurance for their employees).

To do this, he’s got to work with the Democrats – this despite California Democratic Party spokesman Bob Mulholland being quoted by the Kurier as warning Schwarzenegger that he will be subject to recall himself, if he doesn’t make any progress within the next 100 days. Of course, he married into that arch-Democratic family, the Kennedys, and the Kurier makes the rather facile assumption that, because he’s so closely associated with the Kennedys, he’ll get along fine with the Democrats. In any case, President Bush and the nationwide Republican Party will be watching him anxiously; if he does succeed, he can count on being drafted as a Zugpferd, or “draft horse” to energize Bush’s campaign for re-election in 2004.

Then there’s the Kurier’s local-angle story on Austrian tourism, specifically tourism to the Styria region of Austria where Arnold is from, and how it’s expected to benefit from his political fortunes. The article is entitled Styria Rejoices over Gain for Image. “Arnie is our best advertiser,” exults Herman Schützenhöfer of the Styria Tourist Council. Why, in the past days the word “Styria” (together with variations) has been used a full 3,437 times in the international press and on the Internet. “This free PR-effect,” adds Schützenhöfer, “is worth more than any costly ad campaign, since it places Styria in the middle of the world’s attention as an attractive, safe land.”

Moving to Der Standard, the lead story, An Hour of Triumph in LA, advises Arnold not to put too much trust in Gray Davis’ assurances of assistance during the transition; the recalled governor has used the last few weeks to pack key state offices with his own hand-picked appointees, “in order to make life difficult for Governor Schwarzenegger.” This article also places far too much reliance on Arnold’s marriage to Maria Shriver as a guarantee that he will be able to deal with the state Democrats.

But Der Standard also weighs in with some good analysis pieces. One such, by Eric Frey, is entitled A Sickness Called Arnold. (Click on the “Kommentar” link in the column to the right.) “Sickness”? Well, yes, but it’s a nationwide sickness: the steadfast refusal by American voters to pay more taxes. Frey points out that Schwarzenegger’s apparent fiscal plan – lower taxes, provide more services, and still somehow solve the gaping budget deficit – closely resembles the plan that President Bush has succeeded in implementing since his 2001 inauguration. (In Bush’s case, though, those additional services were mostly of the security or military variety.) The key thing is that Bush can do this – for a while, at least – while Governor Schwarzenegger will not be able to, since California (like 48 of the other states) has to balance its budget yearly. Yet raising taxes seems to be out of the question; Schwarzenegger sharply rebuked his adviser Warren Buffet early in the campaign for making that suggestion and, anyway, according to Frey, California is still the land that brought about the national tax-revolt with the passage of Proposition 13 back in 1978.

Then there is the commentary piece contributed by Peter Pilz, who is the security spokesman for the Austrian Green Party: Grinning instead of Knowing, Posing instead of Self-Control. Even more than Herr Frey, Herr Pilz sure knows how to ruin the party mood. As his article’s title implies, to Pilz American politics has become all about appearances, rather than reality. “Whoever preens and shines has won half the battle right there. Whoever instead tries to address California’s problems of the collapse of the energy sector, the polluted water, the exploding unemployment, and the out-of-control immigration, whoever thereby troubles the fortresses of luxury with life’s daily problems, is out.”

In any case, as an Austrian Pilz asks himself whether the sort of upward mobility and acceptance of immigrants that California has shown could ever really take hold in his own country. Could someone born in Turkey, say, ever become a regional governor. No: “[Wolfgang] Schüssel [Austrian premier] and [Jörg] Haider [famous far-right Austrian politician, governor of Carinthia province] want to rejoice in Arnie, even while they continue to exclude the Arnies [coming] out of Ankara and Pristina.”

Please refrain from referring to Pilz as “Peter Putz” – although his name does mean in English “Peter Mushroom.”